Global shipping sails in turbulent waters: Trade disruptions, shifting alliances and geopolitical shocks are forcing companies to act fast - and to act smart:
“Disruption has always been both a challenge and an opportunity,” says Associate Professor Martin Jes Iversen of Copenhagen Business School: “The real question is how to turn volatility into tangible opportunities.”
William Eduard, Director at KPMG ESG Advisory Services, adds:
”Companies that integrate advanced technology across their operations - from AI orchestration layers to quantum-inspired optimisation - will not only be able to navigate uncertainty but also unlock new opportunities for efficiency, resilience and sustainable value creation.”
The paradox of delay
That said, the road to these opportunities is paved with both paradoxes and lessons from history. For instance, Martin Jes Iversen points to what he calls the ‘paradox of delay’ – meaning that when geopolitical events disrupt global supply chains, customers suffer from longer lead times and higher costs, yet shipping companies often record exceptional earnings:
“That is a strange and uncomfortable truth. When world trade slows down, the cost of transport goes up — and the companies that can control capacity suddenly make money from scarcity rather than scale.”
But that situation, he stresses, is not sustainable:
“The question is how you translate short-term windfalls into long-term competitiveness. If the customer’s pain becomes your profit, you are building on shaky ground.”
From history - from the oil crises of the 1970s to the container shortage during the pandemic - we can learn how geopolitical shocks have repeatedly reshaped maritime business models:
“The winners are those who manage to transform crisis profits into innovation. That could mean investing in fleet technology, building digital infrastructure or aligning more closely with customer needs,” Martin Jes Iversen says, adding that the practical challenge for today’s companies is to act before the next disruption hits - by using periods of high freight rates to modernise fleets, strengthen data integration, and deepen customer partnerships rather than defend the status quo.
He also notes that the current decade resembles the 1970s in one crucial way:
“The global order is fragmenting again. Instead of one integrated trading system, we’re seeing the emergence of competing blocs. That changes the very geography of shipping - not just the routes, but the relationships between ports, suppliers and cargo owners.”
